A rules-based strategy for major index ETFs that systematically scales into market weakness — and in backtesting, beat buy-and-hold with a fraction of the drawdown.
Most people hold an index fund and ride every crash to the bottom. This is a rules-based system that does something different.
Every decision follows a defined, tested system — no emotion, no guessing, no watching screens all day.
In backtesting, it cut the peak-to-trough loss of simply holding the index to a fraction — far less stomach-churning.
When the market falls hard, the system adds exposure — positioning to capitalize on the recovery instead of just enduring the drop.
A 50/50 combination of the strategy on two major index ETFs, measured against simply holding each one. Jun 2021–May 2026.
Full transparency: here's every year, side by side. The strategy shines when markets are volatile and recovering — and tends to track the index in calm, rising years.
| Year | Strategy | SPY | QQQ | What happened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | +7.2% | +13.3% | +19.7% | |
| 2022 | +24.8% | -19.4% | -32.9% | Market fell hard — strategy stayed positive |
| 2023 | +50.2% | +24.1% | +53.4% | Recovery — dip exposure paid off most |
| 2024 | +11.6% | +23.4% | +24.9% | Calm market — tracks the index |
| 2025 | +15.9% | +16.4% | +20.2% | Calm market — tracks the index |
| 2026 | +7.4% | +9.8% | +18.5% | |
| Total | +179% | +79% | +119% | Cumulative, ~5 years |
This strategy's outperformance came largely from one market cycle: a sharp decline followed by a strong recovery. That's exactly the environment it's built for. In calm, steadily-rising years it roughly tracks the index — it does not beat the market every year.
And in a prolonged decline with no quick recovery, scaling into weakness could deepen losses before it helps. These are backtested results, prepared with hindsight, excluding costs — real results will differ and will be lower. We show you the year-by-year precisely so you understand what you'd actually be signing up for: lower drawdown and a system designed for volatility, not a guarantee of beating the market.
Interested? Get notified when it opens — and follow the real, transparent results in the meantime. No spam, no pressure.
All performance shown is backtested/simulated, prepared with the benefit of hindsight, and does not represent actual trading. It excludes commissions, slippage, fees, and real-execution effects, all of which reduce returns. Results are heavily influenced by a specific market decline-and-recovery period and may not repeat; the approach can underperform in calm markets and may amplify losses in a prolonged decline. Past and simulated performance is not indicative of future results. No result or profit is guaranteed.
Trading and investing in securities and leveraged products involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for every investor. TradeTec Futures provides educational tools and content only and is not a registered broker-dealer, investment adviser, or commodity trading advisor; nothing here is personalized advice or an offer or solicitation. Consult a licensed professional and invest only with risk capital you can afford to lose.